21st Century Workforce in Applied Mathematics Part I

Figure 1.  Relative percent change in workforce size, comparing the actual size in 2018 versus the projection for 2028.  Source: U.S. Department of Labor. — Figure 1. Relative percent change in workforce size, comparing the actual size in 2018 versus the projection for 2028. Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

Three of the best-known quantitative occupations in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) include Mathematicians, Statisticians, and Physicists. Substantial employment growth in these fields is expected during the new decade, 2020 — 2029, with the United States Department of Labor forecasting positive percent change in workforce size at a pace faster than average. Figure 1 reports that Statisticians are expected to grow by 31%, followed by Mathematicians and Physicists with 24% and 9%, respectively.

Conferred Bachelor’s Degrees

Samples of new members in the STEM workforce are illustrated in Figure 2. Specifically, individuals completing four-year degrees, as reported by the National Center for Education Statistics at the U.S. Department of Education, sustain optimistic temporal patterns. During the 21st century, i.e., between 2000 and 2018, all STEM instructional programs reported in Figure 2 exhibit growth, albeit with differences in pace. The production of workforce with Bachelor’s degrees in Biological & Biomedical Sciences, Engineering, and Computer & Information Sciences, occurred at a faster pace than in Mathematics & Statistics, and Physical Sciences.

Figure 2.  Longitudinal number of awarded Bachelor’s degrees in STEM fields. Source: U.S. Department of Education. — Figure 2. Longitudinal number of awarded Bachelor’s degrees in STEM fields. Source: U.S. Department of Education.

Enrollment & Retention

The size of the STEM workforce with Bachelor’s degree qualifications is sensitive to enrollment and retention in four-year instructional programs. Figure 3 summarizes the enrollment relative percent change over twelve-month cycles during the second half of the decade 2010 — 2019.

There are three STEM areas with positive change, i.e., growth, in 3 out of 4 years (albeit at different times), namely: Computer Sciences, Mathematics & Statistics, and Biological Sciences. On the other hand, the field of Physical Sciences has sustained contractions in enrollment four years in a row.

Unfortunately, in Fall 2019 most STEM areas considered here had contractions in four-year enrollment, consistent with reported patterns (not displayed) at a national scale across all disciplines, i.e., STEM and non-STEM. Two potential underlying factors of enrollment contractions are reductions in the number of live births during the mid 1990’s and early 2000’s, together with sizable levels of basic needs insecurity among university students.

Figure 3. Annual relative percent change in STEM enrollment at four-year institutions of higher education across the United States.  Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. — Figure 3. Annual relative percent change in STEM enrollment at four-year institutions of higher education across the United States. Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Houston, We Have a Problem

Even though the number of conferred STEM degrees has sustained growing longitudinal trends, during the 21st century thus far, the reality is that not every recipient of a STEM Bachelor’s degree will eventually be employed in STEM.

The probability of landing a job in the same field as the awarded degree was estimated from a report published by the U.S. Department of Commerce in 2017, where responses from the American Community Survey were tabulated reporting employment of workers age 25+ by occupation and degree. These probabilities were used as scaling factors for the number of graduates to approximate the expected number of qualified applicants in a STEM area. In Figure 4, such estimates are compared to the forecasted number of job openings, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Figure 4 serves as a forecast of supply and demand in STEM job markets during early years of the decade 2020 — 2029. The phrase “Houston, we have a problem” alludes to an undercapacity job market. In other words, in four out of five STEM areas it is expected there will be more job openings than qualified personnel to fill in such positions. In particular, the occupations Statisticians, Mathematicians and Physicists, displayed in Figure 1, are included in the STEM areas Mathematics & Statistics and Physical Sciences of Figure 4.